Development of a Prototype Model-Form Uncertainty Knowledge Base

Uncertainties are generally classified as either aleatory or epistemic. Aleatory uncertainties are those attributed to random variation, either naturally or through manufacturing processes. Epistemic uncertainties are generally attributed to a lack of knowledge. One type of epistemic uncertainty is called model-form uncertainty. The term model-form means that among the choices to be made during a design process within an analysis, there are different forms of the analysis process, which each give different results for the same configuration at the same flight conditions. Examples of model-form uncertainties include the grid density, grid type, and solver type used within a computational fluid dynamics code, or the choice of the number and type of model elements within a structures analysis. The objectives of this work are to identify and quantify a representative set of model-form uncertainties and to make this information available to designers through an interactive knowledge base (KB). The KB can then be used during probabilistic design sessions, so as to enable the possible reduction of uncertainties in the design process through resource investment. An extensive literature search has been conducted to identify and quantify typical model-form uncertainties present within aerospace design. An initial attempt has been made to assemble the results of this literature search into a searchable KB, usable in real time during probabilistic design sessions. A concept of operations and the basic structure of a model-form uncertainty KB are described. Key operations within the KB are illustrated. Current limitations in the KB, and possible workarounds are explained

The Challenges of Credible Thermal Protection System Reliability Quantification

The paper discusses several of the challenges associated with developing a credible reliability estimate for a human-rated crew capsule thermal protection system. The process of developing such a credible estimate is subject to the quantification, modeling and propagation of numerous uncertainties within a probabilistic analysis. The development of specific investment recommendations, to improve the reliability prediction, among various potential testing and programmatic options is then accomplished through Bayesian analysis

Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion and Excursion Model

In a previous work, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) event data was conducted to ascertain the relevance of this data to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to several of the AvSP top ten TC and identified numerous primary causes and contributing factors of RI events. The statistical analysis served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events, also previously reported. Through literature searches and data analysis, this RI event network has now been extended to also model runway excursion (RE) events. These RI and RE event networks have been further modified and vetted by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel. The combined system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI and RE events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of runway safety incidents/accidents, and to improve runway safety in general. The development and structure of the BBN for both RI and RE events are documented in this paper

Analysis of Runway Incursion Data

A statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain relevance to the top ten challenges of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The information contained in the RI database was found to contain data that may be relevant to several of the AvSP top ten challenges. When combined with other data from the FAA documenting air traffic volume from calendar year 2000 through 2011, the structure of a predictive model emerges that can be used to forecast the frequency of RI events at various airports for various classes of aircraft and under various environmental conditions

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast

Finite-volume scheme for transonic potential flow about airfoils and bodies in an arbitrarily shaped channel

A conservative finite-volume difference scheme is developed for the potential equation to solve transonic flow about airfoils and bodies in an arbitrarily shaped channel. The scheme employs a mesh which is a nearly conformal O mesh about the airfoil and nearly orthogonal at the channel walls. The mesh extends to infinity upstream and downstream, where the mapping is singular. Special procedures are required to treat the singularities at infinity, including computation of the metrics near those points. Channels with exit areas different from inlet areas are solved; a body with a sting mount is an example of such a case

Uncertainty Analysis for a Jet Flap Airfoil

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was performed to quantify the potential uncertainties of lift and pitching moment coefficient calculations from a computational fluid dynamics code, relative to an experiment, for a jet flap airfoil configuration. Uncertainties due to a number of factors including grid density, angle of attack and jet flap blowing coefficient were examined. The ANOVA software produced a numerical model of the input coefficient data, as functions of the selected factors, to a user-specified order (linear, 2-factor interference, quadratic, or cubic). Residuals between the model and actual data were also produced at each of the input conditions, and uncertainty confidence intervals (in the form of Least Significant Differences or LSD) for experimental, computational, and combined experimental / computational data sets were computed. The LSD bars indicate the smallest resolvable differences in the functional values (lift or pitching moment coefficient) attributable solely to changes in independent variable, given just the input data points from selected data sets. The software also provided a collection of diagnostics which evaluate the suitability of the input data set for use within the ANOVA process, and which examine the behavior of the resultant data, possibly suggesting transformations which should be applied to the data to reduce the LSD. The results illustrate some of the key features of, and results from, the uncertainty analysis studies, including the use of both numerical (continuous) and categorical (discrete) factors, the effects of the number and range of the input data points, and the effects of the number of factors considered simultaneously

Nonlinear transonic Wall-Interference Assessment/Correction (WIAC) procedures and application to cast-10 airfoil results from the NASA 0.3-m TCT 8- by 24-inch Slotted Wall Test Section (SWTS)

From the time that wind tunnel wall interference was recognized to be significant, researchers have been developing methods to alleviate or account for it. Despite the best effort so far, it appears that no method is available which completely eliminates the effects due to the wind tunnel walls. This report discusses procedures developed for slotted wall and adaptive wall test sections of the Langley 0.3-m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel (TCT) to assess and correct for the residual interference by methods consistent with the transonic nature of the tests

Unified Total Synthesis of the Brevianamide Alkaloids Enabled by Chemical Investigations into their Biosynthesis

The bicyclo[2.2.2]diazaoctane alkaloids are a vast group of natural products which have been the focus of attention from the scientific community for several decades. This interest stems from their broad range of biological activities, their diverse biosynthetic origins, and their topologically complex structures, which combined make them enticing targets for chemical synthesis. In this article, full details of our synthetic studies into the chemical feasibility of a proposed network of biosynthetic pathways towards the brevianamide family of bicyclo[2.2.2]diazaoctane alkaloids are disclosed. Insights into issues of reactivity and selectivity in the biosynthesis of these structures have aided the development of a unified biomimetic synthetic strategy, which has resulted in the total synthesis of all known bicyclo[2.2.2]diazaoctane brevianamides and the anticipation of an as-yet-undiscovered congener